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Time Series Analysis of the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall on Sugar Production in Zambia

Carols Mulamfu
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Zambia (UNZA), Zambia
Patricia Bwalya,
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Zambia (UNZA), Zambia
Stanley Jere
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Zambia (UNZA), Zambia

Published in Volume Volume 13, Issue 3 (2026)

DOI:

Abstract:

In Zambia, sugarcane is one of the most important cash crops. It helps the country’s economy grow, and people use sugar as a food source. Change it to “Sugarcane production in Zambia is strongly influenced by climatic conditions, particularly temperature and rainfall. It is therefore important for farmers and policymakers to understand how the climate affects sugarcane for planning purposes. This study analysis long-term trends and dynamic relationships between temperature, rainfall, and sugar production in Zambia from 1968 to 2023. Using secondary data from FAO-STAT, the World Bank, and CHIRPS, we applied advanced time series techniques, including ARIMA, ARIMAX, and VAR models. Stationarity was assessed using ACF, PACF, and Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. Correlation and regression analyses quantified the influence of climatic variables, and forecasts were generated to inform policy and practice. Results indicate a statistically significant positive correlation between temperature and sugar production (r = 0.6584, p < 0.001), while rainfall shows a weak and insignificant relationship (r = 0.1238, p = 0.3632). Time series models provided reliable forecasts for future production under varying climate scenarios. The findings highlight temperature as a key driver of sugar yields in Zambia and underscore the need for adaptive strategies, such as heat-resilient crop varieties, improved irrigation, and climate-informed planning. These insights offer actionable recommendations for farmers and policy-makers to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Zambia’s sugar sector in the face of ongoing climate variability

MSC:	62M10 • 62P10 • 62F03

Keywords:

Sugarcane production • Climate variability • Temperature • Rainfall • ARIMA • ARIMAX • VAR

License:

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

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