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Research Article
Beyond exponential growth: Accounting for overdispersion in Zambia’s population dynamics through comparative model analysisBinwell Chileshe1, Kafunda Tuesday2*, Lucheta Chikubula1, Mukonda Danny2, Bulaya Collins3, Kunda Allan Cephas1, Katakwe Anthony2, Obvious Hamweene3, Mwale Chenjelani3, Mwanza Daniel4
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Kwame Nkrumah University, Kabwe, Zambia * Corresponding Author. Email: [email protected] ARTICLE INFO Journal: International Journal of Advances in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics (IJAAMM) Volume: 13 | Issue: 4 | Pages: 39–57 Issue date: June 2026 License: Open Access (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0) DOI: 10.26541/ijaamm.2026.130405 ARTICLE HISTORY Received: 1 February 2026 Revised: 14 March 2026 Accepted: 19 March 2026 Published online: March 2026 AbstractThis study evaluates how well different mathematical models can predict Zambia’s population growth, focusing on capturing both long-term trends and short-term variability often overlooked in standard models. Four models—Exponential, Logistic, Poisson, and Negative Binomial—are compared using data from 2010 to 2024. The Logistic model best describes long-term slowing growth, while the Negative Binomial model provides superior short-term accuracy by accounting for overdispersion. The study offers a practical framework for improving population forecasting in developing economies. KeywordsPopulation growth • Overdispersion • Exponential model • Logistic model • Poisson model • Negative Binomial model MSC (2020)47J26 • 47L25 How to CiteChileshe, B. et al. (2026). Beyond exponential growth: Accounting for overdispersion in Zambia’s population dynamics through comparative model analysis. International Journal of Advances in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 13(4), 38–56. https://doi.org/10.26541/ijaamm.2026.130405 © 2026 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives License. |
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